Psychologist Exposes the FPL Mind Trap Wrecking Your Season

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Fantasy Premier League managers love to think they lose points on the pitch. In reality, according to new research from ticketing platform SeatPin, most of the damage happens in their own heads before a ball is even kicked.

The biggest threat to your season isn’t a rival’s genius transfer, the research suggests. It’s the split-second impulse to panic when gut instinct overrides logic.

The best FPL managers may not be the ones who make the most changes.

The findings, released ahead of the 2026/27 Gameweek 1 deadline, pair a breakdown of last season’s title-winning strategy with insight from clinical psychologist Dr. Max Doshay, PsyD. Together, they offer a clear explanation for why smart managers still blow their season.

Doshay’s take is blunt: The managers who win FPL aren’t smarter about football. They’re just better at not sabotaging themselves.

Why FPL Managers Keep Making the Same Mistake

According to Doshay, the brain processes decisions in a specific way once they’re locked in. Once a manager picks a captain, he explains, the mind starts hunting for reasons to justify that choice.

“Even small amounts of new information get perceived as far more relevant than they actually are,” Doshay says. That’s why a single quiet gameweek from a premium pick can suddenly feel like proof of failure.

That instinct gets worse under pressure, and Doshay says Gameweek 1 supplies plenty of it. He points to anxiety and fear of missing out as the real drivers of impulsive transfers, not careful analysis.

Seeing a rival make a different call, or reading one alarming headline, creates false urgency, according to Doshay. He says managers mistake the relief of “doing something” for an actual improvement in decision quality.

Doshay also flags a memory bias at play. He explains that people feel the pain of losing points far more intensely than the pleasure of gaining them.

That’s why, in his words, one bad captaincy result “sticks in a manager’s memory far longer than three good ones” — and why it so often triggers an overreaction.

The Season-Long Fix Backed by FPL’s Own Champion

The fix isn’t more information, according to SeatPin’s research. It’s discipline — and last season’s actual title winner proves it.

Per SeatPin’s data, the 2025/26 overall FPL champion, known online as Erik Ibsen, handed the armband to Manchester City striker Erling Haaland in 22 of the season’s 38 gameweeks. Only Bruno Fernandes received it more than twice besides him.

Ibsen finished top of more than 11 million entrants worldwide, the research notes, without chasing form or making frequent changes. He picked a premium captain early and stuck with it.

Doshay points to Ibsen’s run as proof that decision quality should be judged over many weeks, not one scoreline, since football’s randomness means even a strong pick can blank in any given gameweek.

This year’s calls carry extra risk, according to SeatPin founder and CEO Galin Ananiev. He notes that a record nine Premier League clubs are starting the season under new permanent management, meaning fixture-based predictions come with more guesswork than usual.

Ananiev says a fantasy squad reflects a manager’s own judgment and the time invested in it — which is exactly why, in his view, a clear process matters more than reacting to every headline or preseason result.

Based on the research, the checklist for managers locking in Gameweek 1 squads is simple: Don’t miss the transfer deadline, and don’t overreact to one early performance.

Captain based on fixtures, not reputation, the findings suggest. Avoid panic transfers before a ball is kicked, and don’t abandon a good process after one bad result.

None of it is complicated, according to Doshay. It’s just hard to follow when your own brain is working against you.

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Brian Yalung

Managing Editor at Sports Bytes PH

Brian Yalung is a long-time writer who covers most sports and technology. He focuses on one-on-one interviews with athletes and organizations, going in-depth. He finished his Masters in Business Administration degree at the Ateneo Graduate School of Business and a Bachelor of Science Degree in Computer Applications at the DLSU-College of St. Benilde.